Forecasting Of Criminality Problems Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method Peramalan Daerah Rawan Kriminalitas Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Crime is a form of social action that violates legal norms relating to acts of seizing property rights of others, disturbing public order and peace, and killing one or a group of people. This has always been a concern for residents in various places in the Ngoro sub-district, therefore this information system was created to help police officers to find out where crimes have occurred. This information sfystem was created to predict the area in Ngoro sub-district using the Double Exponential Smoothing method. So that this system can predict which areas in the next month there will be no crime, and can assist the public in reporting the occurrence of criminal acts without having to go to the police station first. The Double Exponential Smoothing method was chosen by the author because this method can be used. The data used is data on theft of crime from 2017 – 2019. The results of forecasting in one village in Ngoro sub-district such as Manduro are 0.07426431198 if rounded up to 0.1 which is categorized as low crime and has a MAPE value of 7.94%. Based on the MAPE value of the forecasting results, it can be concluded that a good constant is between 0.1 – 0.3.