Fernanda Aurellia Putri Mukhlasin (1), Ririt Iriani Sri Setiawati (2)
General Background: The Human Development Index (HDI) captures regional progress in health, education, and living standards, yet substantial disparities persist across Indonesian regions. Specific Background: Sampang Regency has historically recorded the lowest HDI among regencies and cities in East Java, alongside high poverty, limited access to quality education, and inadequate economic infrastructure. Knowledge Gap: Few studies have specifically examined Sampang Regency using time-series data to assess poverty, the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita jointly. Aims: This study evaluates these three macroeconomic factors using secondary data from 2010–2023 and Ordinary Least Squares regression with first-difference transformation after the original model exhibited multicollinearity and autocorrelation. Results: Poverty changes were positive and significant for HDI changes (coefficient 0.178; p = 0.039), TPT was negative but nonsignificant (coefficient −0.172; p = 0.428), and GRDP per capita was positive and significant (coefficient 0.000014; p = 0.008). The transformed model explained 95.39% of HDI variation (R² = 0.9539) and satisfied the classical assumptions. Novelty: The study provides context-specific time-series evidence for Sampang and identifies GRDP per capita as the strongest significant economic indicator in the transformed model. Implications: Regional policy should prioritize inclusive GRDP per capita growth, connect poverty reduction with health and basic education access, and focus employment programs on the productivity and quality of the dominant informal workforce.
Highlights:
Keywords: Human Development Index, Poverty, GRDP Per Capita, OLS Regression
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