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Section Energy

Geopolitical Shifts, Global Crises, and Renewable Trends Reshaping Oil and Gas

Pergeseran Geopolitik, Krisis Global, dan Tren Energi Terbarukan yang Mengubah Wajah Industri Minyak dan Gas
Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): December:

Kudratkhodjaeva Ziyoda Kamol kizi (1)

(1) PhD Student (1st Year), Tashkent State Technical University, Uzbekistan

Abstract:

General Background: Energy security is a cornerstone of national stability and global economic resilience. Specific Background: Recent wars, crises, and shifting alliances have exposed the fragility of fossil fuel dependence while accelerating renewable transitions. Knowledge Gap: Few studies integrate the impacts of crises, geopolitics, and renewable trends on oil and gas production. Aims: This paper analyzes how geopolitical disruptions, economic shocks, and renewable investments shape global energy security. Results: The findings show that traditional strategies of domestic production and supply diversification alone are insufficient, as crises disrupt infrastructure, markets, and investments. Meanwhile, renewable expansion in the EU, US, and China strengthens resilience and redefines energy autonomy. Novelty: The study offers an integrated framework linking geopolitical leverage, crisis vulnerabilities, and renewable transitions. Implications: Effective energy security requires combining fossil fuel management with renewable strategies, innovation, and international cooperation to reduce volatility and align with climate goals.
Highlight :








  1. Energy security is influenced by global crises and geopolitical changes.




  2. Fossil fuel dependency creates risks that renewables can help reduce.




  3. Policies must balance national security with sustainability goals.








Keywords : Energy, Economic Stability, Oil and Gas, Geopolitical Panorama, Fossil Fuels

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Introduction

The concept of energy security has emerged as a central concern in contemporary international relations, driven by the growing interdependence of nations and the increasing volatility of global energy markets. In an era defined by rapid geopolitical shifts, environmental challenges, and recurring global crises, the stability of energy supply chains has become both a strategic priority and a potential point of vulnerability[1]. New academic contributions have built on this insight by indicating that despite the value of energy security literature addressing crisis-induced conflicts, when taking into consideration the broad-based risks of armed conflicts, economic exposure, and climate consequences, the traditional frameworks emphasizing domestic production or supply diversification in order to avoid potential energy supply crisis become insufficient. Both overviews by Ibekwe along with Bordoff & O’Sullivan offer pivotal perspectives on changing energy security dynamics, analyzing how geopolitical realignments, resource-access competition, as well as changing partnership patterns transformed the globe in terms of energy from now onward. Situating these analyses within a broader historical and geopolitical context allows for a deeper understanding of the structural transformations underway in oil and gas production, as well as the accelerating transition toward renewable energy sources [2].

Literature Review on the Topic

The literature on energy security reflects a growing recognition of the complex interplay between geopolitical shifts, global crises, and the evolving dynamics of energy production and consumption. Ibekwe examination of these linkages from supply to consumption concludes that "geopolitical instability and the impact of climate change on energy resources have made the need for a reassessment of conventional approaches to energy security all the more urgent," ADDIN EN.CITE. According to their research, approaches centered on domestic manufacturing and supply chain diversification are insightful but needModificationClause to meet emerging geopolitical and economic dynamics [3]. Without coherent, long-term policies, resource-dependent countries are susceptible to supply shocks, creating a ripple effect that threatens economic stability and social cohesion. Bordoff and O'Sullivan, introduce a competitive element to this conversation, looking at the changing nature of geopolitical alliances and energy dependence with uncertainty. According to them, nations are placing a higher value on stable supplies and therefore base strategic partnerships more on resource security than on ideological affinity. These move will increase vulnerability to external leverage, undermine energy sovereignty, and realign the geopolitics of resource access – especially in crisis scenarios, where states are likely to trade political bargaining power for resource access[4] This view stresses that energy security is not just a matter of being able to access Phillips and crude oil, but rather a dynamic process driven by wider comparative pains and political power and HR control, and are stable state that is constitute through transitions. The geopolitical role of big oil producers was also focus of research in response to recent tensions involving countries like Russia and Iran. According to Bordoff and O'Sullivan, energy insecurity is a regional conflict trigger, which can lead to an "interactive pattern of alliance reconfigurations and economic dependencies deepening". Control over substantial hydrocarbon reserves provides these states with tools for political negotiation and influence, enabling them to reshape the global energy distribution structure to their advantage. Such dynamics underscore how resource endowments translate into geopolitical leverage in an increasingly multipolar energy order[5]. Policy transformations in major consumer nations further complicate this landscape. For instance, the United States’ adoption of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies has propelled it into the position of one of the world’s largest oil producers, enhancing its energy independence while altering global trade flows. Bordoff and O’Sullivan argue that such shifts intensify competition among states to secure long-term energy supplies, especially as they navigate their own energy transitions in parallel with existing fossil fuel dependencies. Emerging economic powers, particularly in Asia, have also redefined the global energy map. The rapid growth of China and India has increased demand for secure and diversified energy sources, prompting these nations to invest heavily in oil- and gas-rich regions such as the Middle East and Africa. This strategic expansion has altered traditional producer consumer relationships and redistributed influence in global energy governance[6]. The shift towards renewable energy adds another level of complication to this. Belaïd argue that this transition to low-carbon energy systems is motivated not solely by climate mitigation pressures but also by the system vulnerabilities that recent geopolitical shocks have revealed (notably, the European gas supply crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine confrontation). Investments in renewable energy, they say, kill two birds with one stone; they distance the economy from fossil fuel imports from regions with political uncertainty, while also improving resilience against future disruptions in supply. Policy responses to these challenges vary across regions. The European Union’s Green Deal, with its target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, exemplifies a strategic pivot toward renewables, including wind, solar, and hydrogen power[7]. This initiative represents not only an environmental commitment but also a deliberate attempt to enhance energy autonomy and mitigate geopolitical risks associated with fossil fuel dependence. The EU has recognized that it cannot contribute to long-term geopolitical stability with the hollow promise of altruism alone, and has placed sustainable development of renewable infrastructure firmly within its traditional security paradigm. Combined, the literature reviewed shows that energy security is seen as more and more a multidimensional phenomenon, influenced by old resource creating and geopolitical residential or commercial property and the new context of a worldwide energy change focusing on renewable resource sources. The interaction factor between these elements highlights the importance of integrated and flexible solutions that at the same time tackle the immediate risks and the deep transitions that characterize the current energy landscape[8].

Research Metodology

This study adopts a qualitative research methodology, grounded in a descriptive and analytical framework, to examine the interplay between global crises, geopolitical transformations, and the evolving concept of energy security in the context of oil, gas, and renewable energy transitions. The primary objective is to investigate how geopolitical dynamics, market volatility, and technological shifts collectively influence national energy resilience, supply diversification, and strategic policy development[9]. The research is largely based on secondary data collection, through peer-reviewed journal articles, policy briefs, technical reports, government documents, and institutional publications that were published between the years 2010 and 2024. A systematic search of key academic and professional databases, which included Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect and JSTOR, was conducted using phrases such as “energy security,” “oil and gas geopolitics,” “renewable energy transition,” “global crises and energy markets” and “energy policy resilience.” We systematically reviewed the COVID-19 literature and used a thematic content analysis approach to find patterns, frameworks, and reported strategies. This analysis was structured around core thematic categories, including geopolitical leverage in resource allocation, the role of emerging economic powers in shaping global energy markets, crisis-induced policy shifts, and the integration of renewable energy into national security strategies. In addition to literature analysis, selected case studies were examined from regions that exemplify different dimensions of the energy security challenge[10]. Illustrations include the energy transition of the European Union after the Russia–Ukraine war, the increase of shale oil in the US, and Chinese energy investment expanding across Middle East and Africa. The case teams demonstrate use of both modeling and qualitative assessments, and the resulting research work product provides actionable learning on the operational, economic, and political impacts of strategic energy choices in the real world. The methodological framework additionally includes a comparative evaluation of conventional fossil fuel-centred policies and renewable energy penetration, in terms of their separate effects (and synergistic roles) for energy security risk mitigation. The framework considers indicators relating to diversification of supply sources; reduction of import dependence; price stability; geopolitical autonomy; and resilience against market disruption [11]. This research seeks to provide a multi-faceted view of the changing paradigm of energy security as global crises and a new geopolitical order reshape the energy security landscape by utilizing a broad, multi-source qualitative methodology. Yes, this will provide a solid foundation for making evidence-based conclusions, and also for practical recommendations that can align resource management, technology, and policy together to improve energy resilience in the long run.

Analaysis and Result

Ibekwe provide a complete analysis of these dynamics, underlining that the growing volatility of the energy markets connected to global crises requires a revaluation of existing energy security paintings. Their study suggests that traditional approaches, which often give priority to internal production and diversification of energy sources, can require an adaptation to deal with the complexities introduced by rapid geopolitical changes and environmental changes. While nations navigate the interaction of international relations and the allocation of resources during crises, the authors note that a lack of cohesive strategy can leave vulnerable nations to shocks to provide shock, with cascade effects on economic stability and social cohesion[12]. In addition, Bordoff and O’Sullivan underline the competitive aspect of energy resources in their examination of how geopolitical alliances and energy dependence models evolve in the midst of uncertainty. And based on the correlation between interest levels and allocations of people to romantic partners, they conclude that nations rotate with increasing frequency as to rely on specific nations for stable supplies of energy, which results in changes in alliances relating to the requirements for energy supplies rather than any matching in ideals. The strategic reorientation can also make some of the states even more vulnerable to outside manipulation and geopolitical exertion of force, further complicating the energy security picture and making maintaining energy independence from outside control an even more difficult agenda item to put on the to-do list. The authors underline that in times of crisis, countries often give priority to immediate energy needs, leading to a tendency to travel energy supplies in exchange for political lever, which remodels the geopolitical map in deep ways. In light of these intuitions, the analysis of energy security through the lens of global crisis and geopolitical changes clarifies both the vulnerabilities and the adaptive needs that nations face in navigating in an increasingly complex international environment. Rethinking energy policies and collaborative paintings are essential to improve resilience from future interruptions, requesting an integrated approach that couples traditional strategies dependent on resources with innovative renewable energy trends. The critical examination of these interconnected elements reveals that the future trajectory of the production of oil and gas will be modeled not only by the availability of resources but also by strategic geopolitical considerations and from the transition accelerated towards sources of renewable energy[13]. Geopolitical dynamics has always been a factor determining theconfiguration of oil and gas production landscape. In the current state of the world with rising tensions between countries, new energy policies and emergent economic powers, global energy security is slowly making its way into a list of complex modern day issues. To delineate the complexities of the settings changes, it is important to contextualize these changes within the regimes development frameworks, which provides a fuller engagement of their effects in oil and gas production. Since then, tensions - particularly those involving major oil -exporting countries - have increased world oil market volatility. In particular, the return of muscular foreign policy behaviour by revisionist powers like Russia and Iran not only play into their strategic calculations, but also carry considerable impact on energy security around the world. Energy insecurity in many instances obliges the old foes to become new friends, a dictate that Boardoff and O'Sullivan shed light on in their research based on various case studies of regional conflicts. The geopolitical influence of these nations, largely due to their substantial oil reserves, has allowed them to take advantage of energy resources as tools for political negotiation and influence, thus modifying the structure of the distribution of energy internationally. Perpetual changes in energy policies between the main consuming countries and producers complicate the geopolitical panorama[14]. For example, the United States has undergone a significant transformation in its energy strategy, particularly with the appearance of hydraulic fracture and horizontal drilling technologies, which have catapulted the Nation to become one of the world's largest oil producers. This change allowed the United States not only to improve its independence of energy, but also project its influence on international energy markets. As Bordoff and O'Sullivan point out, such changes in policy exacerbate competition between nations to ensure energy supplies, particularly as these countries browse the complexities of their respective energy transitions, often disagree with established producers. Emerging economic powers, particularly in Asia, have also altered the traditional energy landscape. So with energy demands soaring in places such as China and India, they are ever more in the driving seat when it comes to oil and gas. These countries great economic growth has driven them to greater needs of energy resources that would ensure that their development is sustained, leading to its formation of strategic alliances and interests in oil - rich regions like the Middle East and Africa [15]. The reorientation of Russian energy resources policy, in conjunction with comprehensive reforms of national energy policies aimed at diversifying energy resources, represents a fundamental transformation in the geopolitical balance of oil and gas production. In addition, the increase in renewable energy trends further complicates these geopolitical dynamics. The global transition to renewable energy sources raises challenges and opportunities for traditional oil and gas sectors. The nations that depend on the production of fossil fuels face the double challenge of addressing energy security while managing global change towards sustainability. Boardoff and O'Sullivan argue that this transition could lead to interruptions of the energy supply chain if producers do not adapt to the changing demands of the market and the growing importance of low carbon energy sources. For example, investment in renewable energy can be seen as a safeguard against geopolitical risks associated with the excessive dependence of fossil fuels, which potentially stabilizes energy security against changing global political landscapes.

Discussion

The results of this study demonstrate that energy security in the contemporary context is increasingly shaped by the convergence of global crises, shifting geopolitical alignments, and the accelerating transition toward renewable energy. The analysis underlines that traditional strategies of domestic production boost and domestic supply diversification are not enough alone; they cannot mitigate vulnerabilities revealed by conflict, sanction, and fluctuations of market stupidity. Instead, countries are forced to pursue strategies combining fossil fuel management and renewable energy development. The implications are also underlined in geopolitics, with hydrocarbon-rich countries like Russia and Iran wielding their reserves as tools of geopolitical influence, altering alliances and cementing dependencies. Meanwhile, new energy powers — especially China and India — have changed the producer–consumer dynamic and made global governance all the more challenging. Crucially, the study demonstrates that not only are these renewable energy trends vital for the environment but they also have significant strategic implications by reducing their exposure to fossil fuel supply shocks while strengthening resilience. However, balancing short-term energy security with long-term sustainability still proves difficult, as countries may prioritize their immediate security over their long-term concerns during a crisis. The EU Green Deal, the U.S. expansion of shale, and Chinese investments abroad: Comparative insights on global policy response, International Economics and Politics, In press. More specifically, the conversation frames energy security as a challenge of international and transnational coordination and cooperation, centred around global stimulating polices, technological collaborations, and integrated regional frameworks balancing the exigencies of geopolitical stability with the political and technological demands of a low-carbon transition.

Recomendations

In summary, the interaction of geopolitical changes, emerging economic powers and the evolutionary panorama of energy production underline the complexity inherent to world oil and gas markets. The analysis of these factors through a historical lens provides crucial information on contemporary challenges and opportunities that define energy security today, as well as the fundamental role that these elements play to remodel the future trajectory of oil and gas production worldwide., The growing frequency and intensity of global crises, along with the change in geopolitical dynamics, profoundly influenced energy security and the role of traditional oil and gas production. The long-distant conclusion was rewarded that dependence on fossil fuels exposes countries to so various uncertainties and risks, especially at the point of geopolitical tensions. As a result, several nations are re-centering on renewable energy sources as a strategic measure to strengthen energy security and combat the threats of climate change. The largest investment in renewables is not sheer coincidence either: the current energy seizures are providing a definite stimulus, but investments in renewables are being prioritized also due to long-term sustainability. Such reflection has led to an analytic treatment of this phenomenon with respect to the processes of the renewable energy transition being interrelated to the demands of climate mitigation and energy security, by Gatti et al, and further developed by Laïk et al and Belaïd. As they put it, "The less good news is that the vulnerabilities exposed by the recent geopolitical tensions of which the ongoing Russia-Ukraine soap opera only the latest and strongest incidence continue to galvanize countries to ensure the diversification of their energy portfolios." Countries will also improve energy resilience by scaling renewable investments which further lessened the reliance on typical oil and gas generation. Different countries and regions exhibit various approaches to this transition. For example, the European Union has committed a green agreement designed to reach net emissions from zero to 2050, part of which includes substantial investments in wind, solar and hydrogen energy. This strategic pivot is not just an environmental necessity, but a calculated response to improve energy autonomy after geopolitical instability. The extensive dependence on fossil fuels imported from volatile regions has led EU policy makers to prioritize the development of renewable energy infrastructure, seeing it as a criticism for long-term energy safety. In addition, investment trends in renewables also reflect a broader recognition of climate goals on national energy agendas. As described by Belaïd, nations are beginning to recognize that the search for energy security need not come at the expense of environmental sustainability. Instead, the integration of renewable energy sources in national grids allows a symbiotic relationship between energy independence and climatic commitments, promoting the development of green technologies that are less susceptible to reflux and geopolitical conflict flows. Also, renewable technologies are revolutionizing the exceedingly conservative oil and gas industries. As changing market conditions — and public feeling — demand, the predominant oil companies are progressively investing into renewable energy projects. The shift is more than just some companies diversifying in renewables, this shift represents a paradigm shift in the energy sector, with many oil and gas companies begin incorporating their business models in a more sustainable future (and profit). Belaïd highlight that this diversification has a two-fold benefit; It reduces the risk of dependency on fossil fuels and helps to achieve the climate change goals at the same time. Global crises follow geostrategy in parts retransforming the energy scenery, and the innovative tendency of renewables becomes a square of certain significance of grandchildren certainty based on energy safety and sustainability. The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies is not merely a long term aspiration, it is a necessity — a national interest that crosses paths with a global prescription. Throughout this research work, the analysis conducted demonstrates the intricate correlation of global crisis, changes in geopolitical scenario and energy security, Investment in green technologies is ever more seen as an integral way out for countries to face the maze of energy security and climate change amid a tumultuous world. Warfare for a landscape accompanying economic and energy instability and power shifting dynamics dot the horizons that nations sail towards, and the weaknesses of a world slave to energy dependence and the linked implications due to positional and geographical asymmetries become even more apparent. The vulnerability of these oil and gas-dependent nations is evident from the repercussions of geopolitical developments such as wars in oil -endowed areas or embargoes on key energy exporters. Such incidents not only put the energy supply at risk but also make countries reconsider their energy wallets in the search for safe and defiant avenues. The landscape here will be very daunting and seeing the emergence and growth of renewable energy solutions offers important avenues for risk mitigation of traditional energy systems. Switching to renewable resources like solar energy, along with wind and biomass, is not just an environmental necessity but a strategic move to increase independence and energy security. Ibekwe Delineate states that the diversification of the means of energy reduces the reliances of fossil fuels and sustain the energy polices with the new sustainable and climate change reduction objects. Countries that invest in and focus on renewable energy infrastructure can be insulated from the impacts of geopolitical agitation, and energy solutions must always prove to be sustainable, and reliable. The renewable energy potential to remodel the dynamics of oil and gas production is deep. As technological advances reduce the costs of renewable energy generation, the economic viability of the transition from fossil fuels becomes more attractive. This change could lead to a reconfiguration of global energy markets, where renewable energy not only meets national energy needs, but also positions countries as exporters of clean energy solutions. This transformative potential is a good omen for global energy security; however, it needs national and international solid policies that facilitate collaboration in technological advances, infrastructure development and capacities development. Encourage more research in this evolving energy panorama is imperative to understand how nations can collaboratively guarantee energy security. Although the adoption of renewable energy is a key aspect of this collaboration, it must include comprehensive strategies that consider national contexts, technological abilities and availability of variable resources. The synergy of renewable energy development and geopolitical stability can create frames that improve energy security while moving sustainable practices worldwide.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates that energy security in the twenty-first century is shaped not only by resource availability but also by the interaction of global crises, shifting geopolitical alignments, and the accelerating transition to renewable energy. The analysis shows that reliance on fossil fuels exposes nations to heightened vulnerabilities during conflicts, sanctions, and economic disruptions, as seen in the ongoing effects of the Russia–Ukraine war on European gas supplies. Such challenges set in relief that an exclusive focus on domestic production and supply diversification is inadequate to manage the multidimensional risks of the current energy era. Rather, the integration of renewable energy sources is a strategic necessity, a likelihood for higher availability, and a way to strengthen resilience against market fluctuations and geopolitical pressure. Experience from the EU, the US and fast-growing economic markets like China and India shows that investments in renewable technologies can promote environmental objectives while enhancing energy independence and sustainability. In addition, it indicates that together with global decarbonization, the participation of leading oil and gas producers in renewables indicates a restructuring of what we know as the energy international order. The results point out that, rather than fossil-fuel-centric policies designed in the past, energy security demands today flexible, modern policies that combine fossil fuel management with green development, technology diversification and international cooperation. Thus, the duality of energy security as a foundation for economic prosperity and environmental stewardship lies in building a resilient system able to respond crises by developing a strategic plan for renewable investments and partnerships.

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